FedWatch Tool uses CME Group 30-Day Federal Funds futures contracts. Tool calculates percentage-based probabilities of Fed rate changes. Current Fed funds rate target is 5.25% to 5.50%
CME FedWatch aggregates options market data for Fed policy expectations. Tool focuses on Fed Funds Futures contracts for interest rate speculation. Provides probability analysis of different interest rate outcomes. Displays implied policy rate trajectory based on market pricing
Bruce Kasman predicts high-for-long scenario with inflation remaining sticky. Western Europe's rates expected to fall below 2%, US rates around 4%. U.S. election likely to drive trade policy and global inflation. Emerging markets inflation declining, US dollar remains bullish
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Tool measures market's expectations for Fed's future monetary policy. Estimates probability of federal funds rate changes at upcoming meetings. Uses 30-day pricing data from fed funds futures on CME
Fed lowered key policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.25-4.50% range. Fed aims to move closer to neutral, not restrictive, interest rates. Core PCE inflation remains in 2.5-3% range