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FIDE Rating Estimation System
chessmonitor.com/blog/2023-elo-calculationYapay zekadan makale özeti
- Data Collection
- System analyzes profiles of over 100,000 chess players
- Database contains 70 million games and 7 million players
- 31,420 Chess.com and 69,677 Lichess users analyzed
- Users must have played at least 10 games within one year
- Data Processing
- Ratings above 2800 removed due to single exception
- Ratings ending in "00" filtered out
- Linear regression used to filter outliers
- Official FIDE player list matched for verification
- Model and Results
- Linear regression model created with r²=0.65
- Model predicts FIDE ratings with ±118 confidence interval
- System provides rating estimates from 0 to 2500
- Weighted rating calculation based on past 100 games
- Limitations
- Ratings are estimates only
- Faster time controls have high uncertainty
- Ratings vary between countries and continents
- System developed based on community feedback